10/15/2004 09:52:46 AM|||Nathan Moore|||

Bob Krumm has what I think to be an accurate take on the ill-advised Kerry campaign's attempt to make political hay out of Mary Cheney

From email

Here's why I think that the Kerry campaign's remark about Mary Cheney is a disaster for the Kerry campaign. Kerry has made himself look mean and spiteful, while improbable as it sounds, Dick Cheney is now the sympathetic victim.

But this didn't happen in a vacuum. John Edwards' earlier remark was innocent enough that on its own, it should be overlooked. However, the fact that they used it twice shows intent. (Elizabeth Edwards' remark shows utter stupidity and a tin ear.) My guess is that Kerry's internal polls show two things:

First, they probably show that there is some segment of the religious conservative population that could be turned off from supporting Bush if they knew that there was an openly gay family member at the top of the administration. The knowledge of Mary Cheney's social situation is not universal--or at least it wasn't until the other night. So, poll results in hand, Kerry did a little gay-baiting. That is a high risk strategy, however. Certainly they had to know there would be a backlash, which brings me to point # 2. Their internal polls must be showing that Kerry is performing more poorly than the public polls seem to indicate. My guess is that their polls show that potential Kerry support has a hard ceiling. So his only hope is to try to reduce Republican turnout.

Well said.

|||109785202625324657|||Good Analysis