The New York Times notes in an article today that the Democrat Party’s hopes in taking back the Senate rest largely with the victory of Harold Ford, Jr.

“Anyone who thinks the South in 2006 is the same as the South in 2004 is mistaken,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Both parties have a huge interest in what happens here. Democrats must pick up six Republican seats to regain control of the Senate, a formidable task. The most competitive possibilities, party strategists say, are probably Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana and Missouri.

If everything breaks perfectly for the Democrats on election night, the sixth seat would be from either Tennessee, an open seat being vacated by Senator Bill Frist, the Republican majority leader, or Arizona, where Senator Jon Kyl, a two-term Republican, is running for re-election.

“Tennessee could very well make or break whether we take back the Senate,” Mr. Schumer said.

In that case, I’m voting for “break”. Schumer’s conclusion that the South of 2004 is not the same as the South of 2006 is puzzling. Certainly, the South of 2006 is different from the South of 1906 - somewhere in the middle Senator Schumer runs awry. This is the kicker, though

Mr. Ford is known as something of an ambitious maverick in his party; he challenged Representative Nancy Pelosi of California for the minority leader’s job in 2002. According to Congressional Quarterly ratings, he voted with his party 83 percent of the time in 2005, below the average Democratic party unity score of 88 percent. Republicans say he is still the most liberal member of the Tennessee delegation.

Mr. Ford agrees that “the most toxic word in the political vocabulary in this state is liberal” and fights the ideological characterization. He is an accomplished, seemingly effortless campaigner, slipping comfortably between the old cadences of Southern populism, “new Democrat” optimism and the rich oratory of the black church.

Whether it’s 83 percent or 88 percent, in Tennessee it’s a failing grade.