Nathan Moore's Thoughts
Van Will Pull Out?
I found this odd.
A good friend of mine called me yesterday who saw Jennifer Coxe at the Bellevue Breakfast Club here in Nashville on Saturday. She apparently made the most peculiar speech on behalf of Van. She didn’t exhort people to work for Van, or go out and help Van, or even vote for him. Well, at least no more than another candidate. She instead encouraged people to go vote for Van or Ed – that Ed would make a great senator, too. The speech was certainly not what one would expect from a candidate’s campaign manager, and was quite off from what I’ve personally heard her say before.
It seemed bizarre to me. Anyone who knows anything about Tennessee politics knows that if Van loses this race, he’s likely done in the state - at least for some time. If this is the nature of all her (and his) speeches, I think that he’s getting ready to back out and try to throw the election to Ed. If he waits until the last few days of the election, then throws his support behind Ed, Van becomes the savior of the party in the eyes of many (ed. note: not mine), and writes his ticket to nomination to the next available office. It’s a win-win for Van, and he doesn’t have to lose.
Then again, if voters know he’s planning to do this, and know they are about to be manipulated, it loses its effect just a little bit. I’m sure there are some Van fans out there who are willing to deny this is in the works.
July 3rd, 2006 at 11:40 am
Has any poll done recently show Hilleary trailing Bryant? Unless Van Hilleary is admitting Bryant would be a better Senator than him, I can’t see why he would drop out now, unless he has some internal polling numbers nobody has seen yet.
July 3rd, 2006 at 7:17 pm
I would be thrilled to see Van drop out at the last moment and endorse Ed. Internal polling shows that if Ed dropped out that it would not help Van very much, if any. Half of Ed’s supporters would vote for Corker. However, the same internal polling shows nearly 80% of Van’s supporters would vote for Ed Bryant.
Having said the above, I still doubt that Van will ever drop out. Unless he has some internal poll showing him losing badly in third place then Van will not drop out.
July 3rd, 2006 at 8:15 pm
I haven’t seen polling on the ‘what if’ situation, but Ed is trailing Van in every poll I’ve seen. However, it may not matter; Corker is at 50% in some places.
July 4th, 2006 at 11:31 am
Van can’t come in second or third - it doesn’t matter where his polling is vis a vis Ed. If he is to save face, and show that he is of value to his segment of the party, he will have to pull out and attempt to throw the election.
I’m not saying it will work. I just think it makes logical sense for a man in desperate political straits.
N