Nathan Moore's Thoughts
Uh Huh…Sure…Yeah
The New York Times is the only outfit I can think of that is fueled so definitively by its own self-delusion. For instance, now, contrary to every indicator known to political observers, the ragged old lady parades a series of experts that conclude the chances for a Democratic takeover of the Senate as improving. This despite an aggregate of polls demonstrating Bush’s surging approval numbers, and the now-nonexistent gap between the parties in the generic congressional poll.
What’s telling, though, is that the myriad conclusions cited are in direct contravention to the facts on the ground
Analysts say the level of competition in the Senate should come as no surprise; Senate races are much more likely to reflect national political trends, they say, whereas most House districts are so carefully drawn on partisan lines that “they are safe against anything but a hurricane,” said Gary C. Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.
The problem is that the national trend is actually trending away from the Democrats. Yes, there are tight races. Tennessee is presently one of them - it’s my belief that won’t last. Congressman Ford seems to have plateaued, and to have done so dangerously early (at least for his campaign). But the political climate, which had been so favorable to the Democrats back in the early summer when Bush was hovering at Hooveresque approval levels, has changed. The Democratic Party, led by Howard Dean and the rest of the howlers, presented no alternative to the electorate, nationally or on specific state levels to counter the perceived failings of the Bush administration. Present tactics, to include the abhorrent made-up racial slander against Republican incumbent George Allen in Virginia, will not make up for that failure of vision.
The Times story also fails to mention the plummeting gas prices, which will, for what it’s worth, have an effect on voter behavior in November (UPDATE As I was saying). If Bush and the Republicans were blamed for gas prices going up, they are also going to benefit politically when they start to go down. That’s already happening.
To conclude, the Times seems to have cherry picked its experts, and ignored the actual trends of the national political dynamic. Politics, like anything, does not exist in a static state. Disappointingly, it seems the Times is stuck in June.
September 27th, 2006 at 11:11 pm
Recent polls asking generic party questions, have shown improvement for Republicans. But some recent polls in Montana, Tennessee, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Virginia have shown Democrats ahead of their Republican opponents. Even if the numbers are evening up for Republicans on a generic basis, it might be too late to make up ground lost to opponents who have already begun to solidify their images in the public’s mind.
September 28th, 2006 at 6:25 am
Do you have a source for your claim that the accusations against George Allen are “made-up”?
September 28th, 2006 at 6:28 am
BTW, I have to say that it is amusing watching Corker supporters lately. It’s obvious, to me at least, that they are scared crapless. But, but, but gas prices! But, but, but Bush approval numbers!
And I don’t blame them. Corker should have this one in the bag, but instead he is trailing by most accounts. This liberal in a red state is enjoying watching the conservatives squirm.
September 28th, 2006 at 11:02 am
Brittney - I guess George Allen says the accusations are “made up,” along with a slew of former teammates.
The thing about dragging out these kinds of allegations is that the “sources” are always the fallible memories of people from events that happened decades ago.
I don’t know whether George Allen used the n-word in college, it was a long time ago and I’m not sure it matters. Robert Byrd was in the KKK and all seems to have been forgiven. People grow up and people change, I hope we’re not all held accountable for things we might have said when we were in college.
If the Dems want to race bait Allen, they’ve got a much better case with the “macacca” video than by dredging up allegations he used the n-word in college.
September 28th, 2006 at 11:06 am
it was a long time ago and I’m not sure it matters
I bet it matters to the black voters of Virginia.
September 28th, 2006 at 11:32 am
I think Allen, and probably a whole slew of other politicians, used the “N” word back in the 60s, 70s, and possibly 80s. It seems like quite a long time ago, but nearly every high profile politician grew up in a time when George Wallace, a guy whose main campaign platform was the separation of the races, won nearly 10 million votes. I think quite a few people had a change of heart about the issue of Civil Rights, just as quite a few people have had a change of heart about Gay Rights, so it isn’t unreasonable to assume that many of our current politicos had what we would call today “racist” viewpoints at some point in their lives. Remember, it was only about 4 years ago when the Republican party was fighting for the right of states to outlaw homosexuality…now almost no politician would even suggest the notion.
September 28th, 2006 at 12:34 pm
I bet it matters to the black voters of Virginia.
Maybe, the black voters in West Virginia seem to have gotten over Sen. Byrd’s past affiliation with the Klan.
September 28th, 2006 at 1:04 pm
So if some says that you said the N-word back in the Nixon years, you have to prove you didn’t.
Isn’t that the reverse of normal burden-of-proof.
September 28th, 2006 at 1:04 pm
Allen’s Democrat opponent, Jim Webb on the n-word:
“I don’t think that there’s anyone who grew up around the South that hasn’t had the word pass through their lips at one time in their life,” he told the Richmond Times-Dispatch on Tuesday. “If you read ‘Fields of Fire,’ that word and a lot of other words are in the book.” “Fields of Fire” is a novel Webb wrote about the Vietnam War.
MORE:
Webb’s comments to the Times-Dispatch prompted Allen campaign officials to direct a reporter to Dan Cragg, a former acquaintance of Webb’s, who said Webb used the word while describing his own behavior during his freshman year at the University of Southern California in the early 1960s. Webb later transferred to the U.S. Naval Academy.
Cragg, 67, who lives in Fairfax County, said on Wednesday that Webb described taking drives through the black neighborhood of Watts, where he and members of his ROTC unit used racial epithets and pointed fake guns at blacks to scare them.
“They would hop into their cars, and would go down to Watts with these buddies of his,” Cragg said Webb told him. “They would take the rifles down there. They would call then [epithets], point the rifles at them, pull the triggers and then drive off laughing. One night, some guys caught them and beat . . . them. And that was the end of that.”
September 28th, 2006 at 1:17 pm
While I wouldn’t put that incident outside the realm of possibilities, there is an important part of that article you left out JB.
“Cragg said Webb told him the Watts story during a 1983 interview for a Vietnam veterans magazine. Cragg, who described himself as a Republican who would vote for Allen, did not include the story in his article. He provided a transcript of the interview, but the transcript does not contain the ROTC story. He said he still remembers the exchange vividly more than 20 years later.”
September 28th, 2006 at 1:47 pm
Well yeah, the guy accusing Allen of saying the n-word clearly has political motivations too. Anyone who would come out 20 or 30 years after the fact and try to expose someone running for office as being a racist isn’t just an objective “concerned citizen.” They’re either politically motivated or have an axe to grind.
September 28th, 2006 at 2:05 pm
JB,
I agree…see Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
With Allen, there is objective evidence of his, if not racist, let’s say Confederate leanings. I believe he probably used the N word back in the day, but like most people, he has learned how to channel his views into politically correct terms and policies.
The difference between the Webb allegations and the Allen allegations, is that they guy making accusations against Webb, is accusing him of a crime (assault). So there should be a higher burden of proof than saying someone used a word 20 years ago.
September 28th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
Forget the ‘N’ word stuff. There is more than ample evidence that Allen had a noose hanging from a small tree in his office when he was governor. He joined a social club in Richmond when he was governor that excluded anyone but blacks..the same club that 3 previous governors refused to join. He proposed a ‘Confederate Heritage Month’ when he was governor. He had a large confederate flag on his wall at his home when he was governor. He spoke at a Conservative Citizens Council meeting and endorsed their cause when he was governor. Nothing wrong with Conservative Citizens, but this group had recently changed their name from the White Citizens Council. Nobody has to make this stuff up..it’s a matter of record.
Has he changed..I dunno, but there is a clear pattern of behavior that suggests his sensitivity to other races was not impeccable.
September 28th, 2006 at 2:20 pm
I agree…see Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
I think the Swifties would admit as much. They had an axe to grind with Kerry.
September 28th, 2006 at 2:33 pm
“Nothing wrong with Conservative Citizens”
Wouldn’t go that far
September 28th, 2006 at 4:37 pm
John, I read your post at your place, and what you describe is fair game for a political opponent to pick at. But this “back in college” hearsay, which happened before I was even born, may be backfiring.
First of all, it led to that Cragg guy coming out, the validity of whose story is possible, but I don’t hold too much validity in it. But more important, instead of focusing on the concrete stuff, the accusations have been all hear-say.
Which sounds more like cheap race-card political opportunism after the macaca incident, which may be backfiring.
A new poll that was taken during the n-word accusation phase has Allen up five points. If he can portray himself as the victim of an ugly race-card smear, then game over.
September 28th, 2006 at 5:35 pm
Well said! Seems every election year, Dems rely show decently in early polls, then they fizz out.
Wen election day comes along, voters seem make a mockery of those early polls.
September 28th, 2006 at 5:38 pm
thats what I get for doing 2 things at once I guess I meant, Dems show decently in early polls.
Apologies for typo AND second post.
September 28th, 2006 at 9:50 pm
Not the South I grew up in. People with some raisin’ were taught never to use racial epithets. Mama didn’t even allow us kids to call somebody a fool. It just wasn’t done.
September 29th, 2006 at 8:24 am
Nothing is more offensive than outrage by proxy.
September 29th, 2006 at 10:25 am
Jimmy,
I’m outraged for you, for being offended by outrate by proxy.