If gas prices at the pump are still falling come November, John McCain will win.

Practically all the polls say that the electorate wants change, which is a common sentiment come election time without an incumbent. What this means, however, is that people want a change in circumstance. If oil prices continue to fall, the Iraqi government holds firms and we begin to withdraw, and Afghanistan begins moving in the right direction (all not unlikely developments in the next three months), George W. Bush will leave office a popular president. People do not dislike President Bush - they dislike the daily facts surrounding his present time in office.

And recall, the Congress, controlled by Barack Obama’s cohorts, has a 9% approval rating, making Bush look almost Beatle-like in comparison. The Democrat brand is not as damaged as the Republican brand, but there is time yet for that.

All this is not to say that lower energy prices are the only way McCain can win - Obama has a penchant for gaffing, and may be the worst extemporaneous speaker on the planet. Things can happen. Plus, he has thus far had the luxury of running on a phantom history. His real record, which will largely shock middle America, has not even remotely been exposed.

The best thing Bush can do, and McCain can continue to do, is advocate more oil exploration. This is an issue Obama has lost, and the Democrat leadership has walked away from. More news like this, which confirms the United States could be more of a player in the world petroleum market, makes the Democrats’ position more untenable by the day. As prices fall, the Democrats won’t be there to get the credit, and in view of that reality, Obama’s candidacy may simply implode.